|
Below there are screenshots of of system for the last year of
trading activity. Dynamic Sync TS strategy works best on major forex
crosses and 30 minutes to 4 hours timeframes. This is why we have posted
all the workspaces for eur/usd, eur/gbp, gbp/usd and other majors, on
these timeframes. This allow you to make an idea on how the system work
with trends, how many trades expect in a day and how these evolve.
This is the only real method to seriously evaluate a manual traded system
from scratch.
- Charts are updated
every month
- Signals don't
repaint: what you see is what you get!
- Best results on
30min time frame
- Works great in
every market condition and pairs
-
|
Pair |
TimeFrame |
Period (Latest charts on the
Left) |
|
eurgbp |
4 h |
|
|
30 min |
|
|
eurjpy |
4 h |
|
|
30 min |
|
|
eurusd |
4 h |
|
|
30 min |
|
|
5 min |
|
|
gbbjpy |
4 h |
|
|
30 min |
|
|
gbpusd |
4 h |
|
|
30 min |
|
|
usdjpy |
4 h |
|
|
30 min |
|
The purpose of a
profitability test is to matematically and inequivocally test the
profitability of the rules behind the system. For istance, a god trading
tip is to go long when a 5 period moving average cross over a 20
period moving average, but is that a really good tip? Following this rule
wil really gives you an advantage over the time? technically speaking,
have you got a positive mathematical expectancy with this rule? Obviusely,
is better to inequivocally test it before to put your money on this
idea.
Rough
Test
|
|
Rough test is
obtained with an expert advisor which reply exactly all the
entry/exit rules of the system, but with any kind of money
management rule applied.
This means that
trades are opened only when strategy conditions are meet, and are
closed with no stop losses or take profits, but only when conditions
fails again to appear. There is no optimized
variables.
This is the same
as open trades when arrow appears, and close trades when crosses
appears in Dynamic Sync Trading System, with any other kind of
rule.
This kind of test
is the only one which can tels you if the idea behind the system is
good, without be influenced by money management rules or
optimization.
The test shows a
good 60% hitrate with a 1.50 profit factor, which
reflects in a 40% year/return with 5% maximal drawdown. We have also
a 1:1 risk/reward ratio with an average profit of 51pips and
average loss of 49pips. More, we have an average of 5 consecutive
wins, oposite to an average of 3 consecutive
losses.
Detailed
Statement CLICK
HERE |
HitRate
Test
 |
HitRate test is
made to empirically study the validity of the entry rules of the
system. This is obtained with an expert advisor which reply exactly
all the entry/exit rules of the system.
No money
management rule is applied. Trades are opened when entry conditions
are meet, and are closed at the end of the next candle, if in
gain. Differently, the trade remain opened until that entry
conditions fails to appear, then the trade is closed
normally.
This is the same
as open trades when arrow appears, and close trades at the nex
candle closing if in gain, or close the trade if crosses appear
in Dynamic Sync Trading System.
The test shows an
impressive 95% hitrate with a 2.50 profit factor,
which reflects again in a 40% year/return with 5% maximal drawdown
and an average 42 consecutive wins opposte to an average of only 2
consecutive losses. You can see how you pay this trading approach
with a bad 8:1 risk/reward ratio.
Detailed
Statement CLICK
HERE |
The purpose of forward
test a manual traded system is to create a simulation as much realistic as
possible of a specific trading operativity. To obtain that result, all the
trading decision must be taken only on past data available at the moment
in which the trade is made, without including the knowledge we have yet on
future prices movements. Forward testing simulation must include all the
possible fees, costs and all the money management rules as will be in real
trading. Also must consider all the variables as stop losses, slippages,
take profits and so on. These variables must not be optimized to avoid to
curve-fit results, that is to change variables to obtain better results in
a given period, which maybe doesn't reflect the true performance of the
system in a different period. The importance to choose these variables as
in real trading without optimizing is crucial for the trader, who can
build confidence in a system without any risk.
|
|
Forward Test on
EUR / USD
-
- Period: 1
Month
- Pair traded:
1 (Eur/Usd)
- Initial
Deposit: 10.000 us$
- Final
Equity: 114.573 us$
- Return:
1.145 %
- Trader:
Livio
Detailed
Statement CLICK
HERE
Detailed Market
System Analyzer 3.0 report CLICK
HERE
Here is how we
proceed during a forward test.
First, we decide
all the parameters of the backtest: duration, markets to be traded,
rules of the system to test, money management rules, and so on
exactly the same as preparing a real trading plan.
Second, we
collect data and prepare the simulator for the test. Also, we train
testers on how to proceed during the test. Is crucial before the
forward test to have very clear all the rules of the system and have
no discretional works to do. All must be mechanic. We use high-speed
trading simulators, so there's no time to guess work. A test may
last an entire week with 6-8 hours of test daily, and during this
time we're able to test years of trading activity. It's an hard work
so our traders must be prepared and exposed to stress as less
as possible.
Then, the trading test starts. We start to
obtain a series of results and feelings about the system. Something
can be improved on the fly, but the main approach is to try to
maintain all the parameters fixed for the entire duration of the
test.
In the end, we
collect all the data and start our analisys.Statistical
tests and quantitative analisys are made over all the data to
find strenght and weak points. Consideration about the system are
collected which will be used to determine performance, stability,
risk profile and style of the
system. |
|
|
Neuro-Net Optimization with NeuroShell Daytrader
Pro
With the purpose
of find the best settings for our indicators, all the core of
the main strategy is written in c++ and imported in various
trading softwares for optimization. Optimization is a process which
execute an huge amount of tests, every time with different
parameters, over a precise set of data, with the aim of compare all
the obtained results to extrapolate the best ones.
During the
optimization of Dynamic Sync Trading System we've made large use of
Neuroshell software (http://www.wardsystems.com/) to build an advanced
neural network and genetic algorithms.We've build a model for this
software integrating a neural network for each parameter of the
system, and then we've trained that over different market data with
different conditions such as ranging market, trending, and so
on.
An example
result report from 3-month optimization for Dynamic Sync Trading
System on Neuroshell can be found HERE |
|
|
Paper Trading Optimization for Portfolio
Application
Paper
trading is another kind of backtest, the most accurate one for
historical test. It's crucial to get an idea of the stability of the
system.
The
procedure for paper trading a system is as follow: first of all you
need to consider a precise period in the past, for istance 6 months.
For the first 3 months you optimize the parameters of the system,
while for the last 3 months you make a normal backtest with the
parameters of the previuos optimization. This process will show you
if a system tested on a particular period and market condition, is
going to work well also in the future.
We've
made these kind of tests for an entire forex portfolio in every kind
of market condition. As you can see from the shot on the left,
results are stably positive on each
asset. |
An embarassing question
is always asked to someone selling a system is "Why are you selling your
system if it works so well? Why don't you use it yourself?" The answer in
this case is simple: we use this system ourself too.
We live trade
with this system and others our accounts everyday since years with results
that makes us satisfacted. Since we're currently not available to show our
own results for obvious reasons, in the spirit of hide nothing we use
to start demo public accounts which everybody can reach directly to check
with no doubt our activity. We're also working on a live trading room for
the future.
To login to our public accounts, you need to download and
install the trading platform used and connect as
investor.
|
Demo Account for September / October 2008
(CLOSED)
The system worked
great at the beginning of the month in semi-automode (an expert
advisor enter the trade automatically, and i exit them manually) for
total +700pips in 2 days and about 60 trades , but testing of new
settings definitely failed in completely auto mode with -1000pips.
Then Livio started to trade this system manually for the rest
of the month with an impressive +3000pips gain
Detailed
Statement CLICK
HERE |
|
|
Demo Account for April / May 2009 (CLOSED)
Some traders
currently using Dynamic Sync TS have found that trend following
trading is not suitable to their lifestyle and their personality.
Thus, all together we've started working on a fast-intraday
strategy, something we can all trade in a couple of hours a day.
This demo account was traded from our private trading room following
Dynamic Sync TS for fast intraday trades. the result of this work is
now added to the user manual. You can see results directly by login
as below, it's just a demo-test so please don't consider the
money-management and the two derived big
drawdowns.
Detailed
Statement CLICK
HERE |
 |
|
|
Our main work in
developing a trading system is to evaluate the risk involved in trading
it, so to integrate a sound money management system to speed up profits
and cut losses.
We use to do many tests regarding worst case scenario,
stability, worst drawdown estimated, dependancy of trades and so on. Below
you can find a short briefing about Dynamic Sync TS
tests.
|
 Maximum Adverse Excursion
John Sweeney,
Technical Editor of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities
magazine,introduced the concept of Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE).
The strategy was designed to help traders determine appropriate stop
levels for trades based on historical testing.
Essentially,the
strategy evaluates each trade to determine a level of drawdown at
which trades typically do not recover. Systems always have some form
of drawdown; MAE attempts to differentiate between normal and
abnormal drawdown levels.
Like support and resistance lines in
technical analysis, once the MAE drawdown level has been broken, the
trade typically will not recover. Of course, it is possible for a
trade to experience an abnormal drawdown only to recover to make a
profit. These trades are rare at best and aren’t worth the risk to
continue with the trade. |
|
 Dynamic Sync TS is a trend following strategy.
That means that trader is looking to catch the big move instaed of
the short swing which may have bring him to enter the trade.A
tipical example of this is shown in the chart on the right. After
the give signal to Buy price goes up a little bit just to retrace
hard. the maximum adverse execution of this swing correspond to the
distance between the indicated entry point and the previous minumim
level which is the support for the previous movement. if price goes
under this level, is better to close the trade, instead we ned to
consider this as a normal execution and place our stops considering
this.
We've backtested a tipical MAE of 20-50 pips working over
the 30min timeframe, with a distribution as on the picture on the
left. As you can see, more than 70% of all the possible trades
have a MAE less than 30pips, and more that 90% of the remaining
trades have a negative outcome, thus we've adjusted our
stop losses to 30 pips.
|
|
On the graph on
the right you can see results of our forward test. Detailed
statement and details of forward testing are above.
On the first
graph you see results of trades in pips.About loosing trades, these
are all cutted to 30 pips. Winning trades instead goes on until 100
pips and over.
The average of winning trades come out to be more
than 30 pips, so we have an expectancy of more than 1:1 risk/reward
ratio, with trades until 200pips which spped up the system with a
ratio of risk of 7:1.
Out of 133 trades during the month of
forward test we get 49 losers and 84 winners, which result in 64%
winning ratio.
These values alone are exceptional for a trend
follower system, and allow us to pump profits with a sound money
management algorythm. in the second graph you can see the same
results in dollar profits. We've inverted the tendency (red line) to
get a smaller profit which is a natual feeling when lots traded
becomes more consistent. We now have a nice uptrend in profits which
will results on the equity of the statement shown above.
With a
simple fixed fractional money management system we've improved our
risk/reward ratio to 1,8:1 with an average loosing of -1310$ and an
average win of 2420$. With profits of more than 20000$, we've reached ratio
of 15:1 which are to be expected for a sound trend following
system.
Increasing or decreasing the value of the stop loss may
results in better trades in particular market conditions, but we've
found over time that this is an optiized parameter over the long
period. Our last consideration about MAE and stop losses for this
system is that is always advisable to place a stop loss few pips
below the extreme level of support or resistance for the movement in
act, with a value between 20-40 pips, and is advisabel to never
exceed 50-60 pips because statistically this will give a negative
result in 80% of the cases.
These considerations bring us to
study distribution of losing and winning trades to stage a worst
case scenario. |
 
|
Losing
and Winning Trades Streaks Distribution
Analisys
|
 
|
Before to go on
with our analisys of winning an losing streaks, we have to spend
some time to understand how streaks are generated.
Wins streaks are
the result of a liquid, fluid market with stable and well defined
trends. When a trend follow a trend with no congestions and waves
wide enough, our system make its best to take top and bottoms of
these moves. price action is clear and we have just to followat
arrow and crosses to spot the best levels to trade. Also, winning
streaks appears during a strong and long-lasting trend, when more
than one trade signal in the same direction may be
generated.
Losing Streaks
instead may occurs during congestions. A clear example in in the
picture on the left. In this shot prica action is not clear for a
trend follower. Price after a strong uptrend has made a long
retracement that have caused Dynamic Sync TS to close the long
position. Now there is uncertainty between traders about the future
and the result is that price remain congested in a channel too much
tight to be traded with Dynamic Sync TS. Two times price approaches
the low support with enough strenght to belive that a breakout maybe
in act, but it fails to confirm the movement. this results in a
streak of 2 losses. Then the uptrend resume strong and next signal
give us the direction of the breakout to exit the
congestion.
Every experienced
trader well know that a congestion may last a lot of time with false
signals and this is why is better to avoid night hours and market
with low volatility to trade trendfollowing. This is all explained
in the user manual. The same, every trend follower trader well know
that a breakout wiil appear in the end, and the gain made from this
trade alone are enough to cover the small unavoidable losses
during the congestion. This is the concept behind every good
breakout or trend-following strategy, as we can see many profitable
strategy with less than 40% of
hitrate. |
|
 We've analyzed a lot of
trading results made following Dynamic Sync TS and we've found
results of the above forward test to be fairly representative of our
operativity.
In the chart on the right you can see the
distribution of winning and losing streaks. On horizontal axis there
are the number of trades in a serie: from 5 loosing trades in a
serie on the left, until 6 winning trades in a serie on the right.
On the vertical axis you have the number of series we've had. Red
columns represent losing series, lime columns are the winning
series.
As you can see, we've never had more than 4 losses in a
row, while we've had many times 6 wins in a row. Also, more than 50%
of losses comes alone, while a winner is followed by another winner
on most than 60% of the cases.
This relationship suggest us that
Dynamic Sync TS works well on filter false signals during
congestions, and at the same time we now know that 3-4 losses or 5-6
winners in a row may occur during our
trading.
Our money management plan must be adapted
consequently.
|
Worst
Case Scenario
|
 While most
sellers only show millionaires statements with no losses, we want to
hide nothing and show you first of all the worst case scenario you
can expect trading our system. Here's the equity line from one of
our forward tests on November 2008 which is definitely the
worst case we've ever had following this system.
We're incurred
in a row of 9 losses with a 48% drawdown because of the very high
leverage. The system recovered and start to work as usual
so we was able to achieve a +300% return at the end of the
test.
Detailed
Statement CLICK
HERE |
Dynamic Sync Trading
System is a typical trend following trading system for the forex market.
What that means?
Currencies trend and
this can be seen on any forex chart i.e. they move in a sustained
direction for periods of time. The aim of any trend follower forex trader
is to lock into these trends and turn them into profits. Doing it in real
time simply requires learning the right forex education and technical
tools to succeed.
Trend followers traders are used to be divided in two
categories: intraday traders and long-term traders.
Intraday traders do what
is called swing trading, that is take advantage of swings of the price
within the same trading day. Swing trading is perhaps the easiest way for
new traders toimplement a Forex trading system. Your aim is to catch
reactions within major trends which last a few days to a week.
Swing
trading has the advantage of giving plenty of opportunities and you know
if you are right or wrong quickly. Forex swing trading is easy on the
mind, as you have obvious stop levels and finally, profits and losses come
quickly. In swing trading you don’t have the pressure of sitting on long
term trends, where you have to contend with big open equity swings against
you in the short term.
Long-term traders
instead take advantage of trends which lasts for days or even weeks.
If you can get a forex trading system to catch and follow long term trends
then you have the most lucrative form of trend following but its also the
hardest form of trend following and far harder than forex swing trading
which we just looked at.
You will very often see trends that last for
months or even years yet, very few traders have the mental discipline to
hold and capitalize on these trends. Long term forex trend following
requires considerable discipline and patience.
Dynamic Sync Trading
System's style of trading stays somewhere between these two approaches to
trend following, it depends also from the lifestyle and the personality of
the trader. Below we will see how you can expect to trade with this
system.
Trading
Hours
|
 Understanding forex trading hours is very
important when you chooseto trade currencies. Since you can trade 24
hours a day, 5.5 days a week, you not only receive greater freedom
but also more time to trade the forex market.
As you can imagine,
having more hours of forex trading also provides more trading
volume, since essentially people can trade when the market is open.
This around-the-clock participation, offers trading flexibility not
afforded to traders in other markets, such as equities or
futures.
As a true 24-hour, 5.5 day-a-week market, trading begins
in Australia and flows through the open and close of the major
financial trading centers in Asia, Europe, the United States, and
then back again to Australia.
The daily foreign currency trading
volume is determined by which forex market hours are open. For
example, when global financial market open times overlap, such as
when the U.S. and British market are open simultaneously, there is
greater trading volume and greater opportunity to trade.
The best
approach with Dynamic Sync TS is to open position in high liquidity
hours, then manage positions within the day and eventually close
before the next opening of the day after.
Best trading hours are
as in the picture on the
right.
|
Trades
Timing
|
 Our opinion as developers is that the most
important factor in a trading system is the duration of trades. In
spite of this rarely someone interested in purchasing a system cares
about this factor. A newbie coming to trading systems world simply
cares about how the system entry into the market, its hitrate
and in few cases he ask himself if the system is for scalping or
position trading. This lack of analisys in finding the right method
for you is the main reason of failure.
It's a fault of system
sellers who just don't publish enough data about their system to
educate traders to approach systematic trading the right
way.
Because of this blind approach traders makes every time the
same errors such us trading a scalping system opening 1 trade a
day, or a trend following system with a 5 pips stop
loss.
Avoid trading a system without be aware of what kind
of trades you must expect from the system itself.
Dynamic Sync TS is
something more thatn a swing trading system, as we've seen. That
means that it works taking advantage of the main trends during the
trading day. A new trading day starts at 8.00am GMT with the opening
of the London session and lasts 24 hours because it's a worldwide
market, so you have the markt open 24hours a day 5 days a week. That
doesn't absolutely means that every time are good for trading, and
absolutely doesn't mean that you can trade profitably Dynamic Sync
TS 24hour a day for the entire week.
Each wel built trading
system is built to take advantage of particular conditions and
patterns which repeats itself day by day, but that doesn't means
that these patterns will appear 24hours a day 5 days a
week.
Swings which are caught by Dynamic Sync TS, which are the
strongest waves, needs liquidity and a lot of trading capital (that
means a lot of traders too) to achieve consistency. As we've seen,
the most liquid period in a trading day is from the London session
opening at 8.00am GMT to New York closing at 4.00pm GMT. That is
particularly true for euro-based crosses.
So,
how many tradable swings should we expect from 8.00am GMT to 4.00pm
GMT?
Empirically, we can say 1 or two waves.
Statistically, we've found that more than 70% of trades
with Dynamic Sync TS lasts from 2 to 6 hours, as showed in
the graph on the right which refers to the forward test above. That
means that have no sense following this system to open and close
trades within minutes, and also that you may expect 2-3 trades
each day max for each cross.
This is the reason why we've
developed a powerfull multi-currency strategy to be applied in 2 as
well as
20 crosses over the 4 hours timeframe, which together with the main
strategy to be traded on 1 cross over the 30min charts, is the real
core of this system.
Also, to accommodate different needs and
personality, we have reserved a large part of the learning material
to explain how to use this system for fast trading and scalping as
well. Entry/exit indicator (arrow and crosses) are designed to be
effective only with the main strategies on 30min and 4hours, so
don't expect to be able to scalp consistently with 50 trades in a
couple of hours folowing Dynamic Sync TS arrow and crosses. This is
not the aim of this indicator.
You can instead be very profitable
following Dynamic range indicators provided with the system and with
the rules explained in the user
manual. |
Best
Pairs to Trade
|
|
Which currency
pairs are the best to trade in forex? It depends on how you define
'best'. So now we'll discuss on various factors on choosing a forex
pair for the aim to trade Dynamic Sync TS.
1. Spreads - There
is an advantage to trade pairs that have a tight spread.
Lesser spreads equal to more profit and more room for price
fluctuation. EUR/USD has the tightest spread of 2 to 3 pips for most
forex brokers and even 1 pip, while GBP/JPY has spread of 6 to 10
pips.
2.Liquidity -
Majors are the most liquid and widely traded currency pairs in the
world. Trades involving majors make up about 90% of total Forex
trading.The Majors are: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD
and USD/CAD.
3.Session time -
During Asian hours when Tokyo opens, you may want to trade
AUD/USD as it starts to move during the stated timing. When London
market opens best pairs are GBP/USD
and EUR/USD.
4.Trendiness - you
will sometimes find either of the pairs trending better than the
other. Some pairs have historycally a better tendency to create
solid trends.
5. Choppyness -
this measures the velocity of movements in a cross. These are as
below:
Fast moving currency pairs: GBP/USD and USD/CAD
Slow
currency pairs: AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY
Moderate pairs:
EUR/USD and USD/CHF |
Risk /
Reward Ratio Advantage
|
|
Risk is a part of
trading. Every trade carries a certain level of risk. Every trader
must know the amount of risk that is being assumed on each trade.
Knowing the amount of risk on each trade is one way to limit it and
to protect your trading account. The best way to know your risk is
to determine the risk-reward ratio. It is one of the most effective
risk management tools used in trading.
The risk-reward
ratio is a parameter that helps a trader to determine the level of
risk in a trade. It shows how much a trader is risking versus the
potential reward (or profit) on a trade. While this may seem
simplistic, many traders neglect taking this step and often find
that their losses are very large.
The risk-reward
ratio is an important risk management and trading tool. It is
important for beginning traders to take the extra time to perform
this task because it can help to minimize risk in every trade,
although no systematic trader at his beginning seems to care about
this parameter to evaluate a trading system. instead, thisis the
parameter we try to optimize at first.
Dynamic Sync TS
has shown over time the possibility to higher risk/reward ratio, if
compared to the most known and used trend following strategies. If
you're a trader you know for sure the 3 Moving Averages strategy.
It's a simple but amazing effective strategy for trend following
trading, which use a fast, a medium and a long term moving average
of price to find entry and exit points. Rules are simple: go long if
the fast MA cross above the medium MA, above the long one. The
opposite for short. this is how in the shot on the left with a 200,
a 50, a 26 and a 8 periods moving averages.
We've compared
Risk / Reward Ratios during our forward testing between the 3 MAs
Strategy and Dynamic Sync TS and we've found an huge advantage for
the second one, with an average of R/R 1:4,65, versus 1:3,24. As you
can see, Dynamic Sync TS entry signals always anticipate normal
entry point with less distance from the entry point itself and the
stop loss level. This results in a better risk/reward ratio, or in
other words in less risky trades and "cheaper"
trades. | |
Why “Dynamic”? 
Dynamic Sync Multi Color Candles are a
powerful tool for visual trading, based on Heikin Ashi candles filtered
with Dynamic Zone Stochastic.
Hey Mike,
IMPORTANT:
Here's what I suggest you do right
now...
The huge 140 pages User
Manual
How read this:
All the software is delivered directly onlyne for safety
and velocity of transaction.
If you
buy trough eBay network payment is to be made by Paypal only.
